One of the most reliable parts of preseason predictions is the tendency to overplay or underestimate the strength of certain divisions. This year the division that was underestimated was the NFC North, which could feature at least three and possibly even four playoff teams.
The overestimated division so far is the NFC West. The division was supposed to be difficult going on tough, with the NFC champion 49ers being the favorites and Seattle possibly contending for a playoff berth. In addition, this division a couple of potentially surprising teams at the bottom in the Rams and Cardinals. Instead, the division “leaders” currently sit at .500, while the potential surprise teams are struggling to regain their footing for a variety of reasons.
San Francisco 49ers might be the NFL’s biggest disappointment
After challenging the Chiefs in last year’s Super Bowl, the 49ers simply aren’t the same team. The problems started in the preseason when contract issues led to the delayed signings of key receiver Brandon Aiyuk and all-NFL tackle Trent Williams.
Those issues were basically just a harbinger, however. The real problem was injuries, with the worst taking down multitalented running back Christian McCaffrey, who remains the key to coach Kyle Shanahan’s motion-based system. McCaffrey’s receiving and running talents are basically the engine that makes the offense go, and at this point the calf injury that delayed the start of the season remains a problem that could keep him out for the duration.
McCaffrey wasn’t the only victim of injury, though. San Francisco listed as many as 23 injuries for a preseason practice against the Saints, and the defensive casualties include star linebacker Dre Kinlaw. There’s only so many times that Shanahan can go to the well and pull a stud replacement out of his hip pocket, and this may be the year when the 49ers’ ongoing success catches up with them and they continue to struggle.
The Seattle Seahawks are still a team in transition
The Seahawks were supposed to be next up in the division pecking order going into the season, but the question mark they faced was in the coaching category. Mike McDonald has taken over after Pete Carroll’s successful run. Like Carroll during the last few years, though, McDonald is struggling to elevate his team over the .500 mark.
The issues are myriad and diverse. Quarterback Geno Smith has been spectacular at times and turnover-prone at others, and the running game has come and gone and been ignored occasionally as well. McDonald’s ability to improve the defense hasn’t surfaced as advertised, which means the Seahawks have mostly displayed all the classic characteristics of a .500 team.
The Arizona Cardinals have been inconsistent
The Cardinals looked like the division’s possible surprise team during the first few weeks of the season, but they simply haven’t been able to sustain their early success. Kyler Murray has been the key to this team, but his passing yardage numbers have fallen steadily over the course of the last four weeks, and the defense hasn’t been anywhere close to good enough to pick up the slack. The Cardinals remain dangerous because of Murray, but they’re a long way from anything resembling true contention.
Los Angeles Rams have been bitten by the injury bug
The Rams are also a team in transition, especially after Aaron Donald’s retirement, but they were expected to still be dangerous because of the presence of Matthew Stafford. Like the 49ers, though, the Rams have been hit by a wave of injuries, with their wide receiving corps has been especially decimated. Taking out Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and tight end Tyler Higbee has eliminated some of Stafford’s best weapons, and Sean McVay is struggling to keep the Rams afloat.