The NFL season hits the halfway mark this weekend, so it’s time to get serious about sorting things out. The first eight weeks have featured some surprising developments that have put multiple unlikely teams in position for a playoff berth, but some of this is basically chasing fool’s gold. The line between contenders and pretenders isn’t as obvious as it first seems, so let’s flag some of the teams that could have trouble sustaining what they’ve done to date.
Sean Payton is finding ways to win with Bo Nix leading the Denver Broncos
Payton’s return to the sidelines last years was unexpectedly bad, mostly because he struggled to get on the same page with Russell Wilson. What looked like a coach/QB marriage made in heaven quickly turned into a nightmare, and the financial terms of the divorce were especially painful for Payton and the Broncos.
Enter Bo Nix. No one else thought Nix could come into the league and win right away, but Payton saw some traits he could develop. Nix can make short throws and use his legs to move the chains, but most importantly, he knew the young quarterback was willing to learn Payton’s system and do what he was told. Payton knows how to win games in the NFL, and somehow the Denver Broncos are 5-3 heading into this weekend.
But things are about to get very real for the Broncos. They’re in Baltimore on Sunday to face the Ravens, and after that they visit the Chiefs, with the Falcons coming to town right behind them. After that Denver’s schedule turns soft, but a three-game losing streak would unmask them as a playoff fraud, especially with the potentially powerful Chargers sitting just beneath them at 4-3.
Philadelphia is still a team without an identity
Speaking of possible frauds, the Eagles are 5-2, but we still don’t know who they really are. Are they the potential juggernaut that wins games easily when Jalen Hurts is playing well, or are they the outfit that struggles mightily when Hurts is off his game?
The answer to this question last year wasn’t pretty. Philadelphia fell apart down the stretch last year, and given how erratic Nick Sirianni has been this year, it doesn’t feel like it would take much to set that scenario in motion again.
The counter to this argument is that the NFC East as a whole is weak. The Cowboys are also a fraud team, and the Commanders are going to have to survive the second half of the season as contenders with a rookie quarterback who’s struggling with a rib injury. There’s also the Giants, who are close to a get-right game every time they take the field.
The fork in the road is especially sharp for the Eagles this year, and it will be interesting to see which path they choose.
Indianapolis Colts
The AFC is clearly having a bit of a down year when it comes to mid-pack playoff contenders, which forces us to mention the Colts. Yes, they’re currently .500. And yes, every game they’ve played has been close. But this is a team that’s going forward with Joe Flacco due to Anthony Richardson’s struggles, so it feels like it’s only a matter of time before a meltdown occurs.
Indy is in Minnesota this week, and the Bills come to town after that, so we’ll find out fairly quickly if Flacco can once again work his off-the-couch magic. Meanwhile, the Colts will try to straighten out Richardson, a project that’s starting to feel like fool’s gold in its own right.
The NFC West is full of playoff pretenders
One of the truly weird developments in this NFL season has been the way the NFC West has played out. San Francisco was supposed to be dominant, with Seattle as their primary challenger and Arizona as the dark horse. The Rams were the mystery team.
Instead, this is the .500 division, except for the Rams, who are still a threat at 3-4. San Francisco is still a strong playoff contender because of their history and Kyle Shanahan’s ability to generate offense and win games, but their injury list remains long and devastating.
As for the rest of the bunch, who knows? All of these teams have strong pretender tendencies, but at least one will probably hang around through most of December. Beyond that, the entire division feels like a coin flip going forward.