When the WNBA playoffs start later this month, certain truisms will apply. Stars will shine both home and away, while role players will be more likely to catch fire and have big games at home. Most of the games will be low scoring and tightly fought, and attempts to get to the rim will be met by hard fouls.
Some of what happens will be predictable, but there's a lot of randomness involved, too. One of the biggest variable is players who come from out of nowhere, usually non-stars, to be the X factor in a given series. Here are some of the major candidates, along with the role they could play in the postseason.
Kelsey Mitchell, Indiana Fever
Indiana is making a late charge toward a higher playoff seed, and most of the buzz is about Caitlin Clark. Which is well deserved, but only up to a certain point.
Don't forget about Kelsey Mithcell. She's gone off for at least 23 points in Indiana's last four games, and it's no coincidence that the Fever have won all four, posting totals of 100 points twice and 84 points each in the other two games.
Mitchell has supercharged the Indiana offense, and she's made the Fever an especially dangerous playoff opponent. Indiana still has issues with defense and Clark's turnover problem, but opponents have learned that they can't slack off Mitchell to focus on Clark.
Jewell Lloyd, Seattle Storm
The problem here is simple. Seattle needs offense, and they've been terrible from beyond the arc.
Jewell Lloyd, meanwhile, is a shooter, and she takes most of Seattle's three-pointers. Her shooting percentages have been awful, and if the Storm are going to make noise in the playoffs, that needs to change.
There are signs of life here, however. Her point totals in Seattle's last three games are 28, 20 and 27, respectively, and while only one of those games was a win, the two losses were to New York and Connecticut. If she suddenly finds her shooting touch, the Storm will be a much more dangerous challenge.
Marina Mabrey, Connecticut Sun
To some extent, Marina Mabrey has already been the X factor in Connecticut's season. The Sun picked her up at the deadline from Phoenix, and Mabrey's shooting has made a definite difference, to the point where Sabrina Ionescu of the Liberty commented on how much harder it was to defend the Sun due to Mabrey's ability to space the floor.
Can she continue to do the same thing in the postseason? If the answer to that question is yes, Connecticut is definitely on to something. They likely won't need her contributions in the first round, but if Mabrey can help keep the Sun offense from stalling occasionally, their chances for a title will go up significantly.
Napheesha Collier
It may seem strange to call one of the league's stars an X factor, but that's definitely the case with Collier. She put Minnesota on her back during August, carrying the Lynx to a one-loss month and putting the rest of the league on notice in the process.
Simply put, Collier does it all. She scores, she rebounds, and Collier is a force on the defensive end as well. It's not exactly unheard of for stars to put their teams on their backs in a given playoff series, which is part of why Minnesota is a team no one wants to play right now.
Other WNBA X-factor players
There are more X factor players out there waiting, of course, but we don't know who they are just yet. The best we can do is make guesses, both educated and otherwise. That's part of the fun of playoff basketball, and this year's WNBA version is serving up some great story lines that are just waiting for these players to add their names to the plot.