Evaluating elite quarterback prospects who play for top five programs is always tricky. They typically have great tools, and they post spectacular numbers against smaller schools and lesser opponents. Which is great, but the combination provides little information about how these QBs will do when they face menacing blitzers and complicated schemes in the NFL.
There is a workaround for this, and that’s why Carson Beck’s performance against Alabama tonight on the road in Tuscaloosa is so important to his future. It will be the first real chance this year for scouts and personnel evaluators to see what Beck can do against another elite program. Call it his pre-pro day if you will, but whatever Beck does against Alabama today will go a long way toward determining what goes on his final scouting report.
Carson Beck by the numbers
Start with the numbers. Like most quarterbacks who are talented and fortunate enough to play for schools like Georgia or Alabama, Carson Beck has put up some monster numbers. For evidence, look no further than Georgia’s season opener against Clemson. Beck went 23 for 33 for 278 yards with two TDs, and on paper his performance was a great add to his resume.
There’s one small problem with that theory--Clemson’s defense may not be that good. As a whole, the Tigers have fallen from being a playoff contender to an also-ran, and they come into his week ranked 25th in the country. Last week they got torched for 28 second-half points against a mediocre NC State team, although some of the damage was done against Clemson’s second stringers as the Tigers ran up a 45-7 halftime lead.
Beck’s subsequent performances would seem to verify that. Last week he struggled against Kentucky, throwing for just 160 yards as Georgia eked out a 13-12 win against a team that’s now just 1-2, which gave coach Kirby Smart plenty of bad tape to use for motivation. Maybe the Bulldogs were just looking ahead to their annual showdown against Alabama, but those numbers and the closeness of the game are definitely cause for concern.
Tale of the Tape
Carson Beck’s tape is revealing, but only up to a point. It shows mostly what you’d expect from an accomplished Bulldogs quarterback—a high-IQ players who can make all the throws, reads defenses well and operates well from a clean pocket.
But what happens when the pocket isn’t clean is the key to today’s evaluation. Nick Saban may be comfortably retired down the road a piece, but the Crimson Tide will undoubtedly throw as many stunts and blitzes as they can scheme up to rush Beck and make him uncomfortable. It’s the most fun part of this matchup, and it will also be the most telling.
Who is the real Carson Beck?
That’s the big question. Beck could be the guy who dominated last year, throwing for 300+ yards against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Auburn. Or he could be the player who got exposed some against Kentucky. To put it in legal terms, there’s insufficient evidence for either argument.
Which is what makes Beck’s performance tonight against Alabama so pivotal. Pro evaluators get precious few chances to see guys like Beck against top competition, and short of the playoffs this is almost certainly the best opportunity they’ll get.
He’ll be playing against a defense that annually featured a half-dozen future NFL players when Nick Saban was running the show in Tuscaloosa, and this year the applicable names include ball-hawking DB Malachi Moore, edge rusher Dallas Turner and defensive linemen Jahiem Oatis, all of whom will be playing on Sunday next year.
There’s also a potentially great quarterback to watch on the opposite side of the field. Jalen Milroe’s NFL draft stock has been rising lately, which means you’ve got two possible top-five picks going against one another, depending on where the pre-draft hype machine takes us. It doesn’t add much to the tape, but it does provide more important cannon fodder as Beck leads Georgia against ‘Bama in what is by far the most intriguing game of the season to date.