It’s week four of the NFL season, so we're coming up on the quarter pole. That means it’s time to do a reality check to see how many of the NFL’s five undefeated teams are actually for real.
Start with the Chiefs and Bills, who are the leaders of this pack. Figuring out the Chiefs is easy—they have Patrick Mahomes, so they always figure out a way to win. They’ll probably hit a slow spot as they once again try to figure out how to jump start their offense again, but they’ll be there at the end. The Bills likely will too, especially now that Josh Allen is spreading the ball around now that he doesn’t have to worry about feeding Stefon Diggs.
That leaves the Seahawks, Steelers and Vikings. All three teams are 3-0, and the common thread between them is that they’ve all been borderline playoff contenders who typically end up around .500. Will their fast starts give them the edge they need to get over the top?
Seattle Seahawks
After three games, Geno Smith is being mentioned as an MVP candidate. He’s had hot streaks before, but Smith has never been able to sustain them over the course of an entire season. He ends up with excellent numbers, but the Seahawks are one of those teams that always seems to be in wild-card limbo during those last two weeks.
Two things are different this year, and one is a new coach. Mike McDonald is a defensive guy who was the Ravens DC, so his bona fides are there. McDonald has upgraded Seattle’s schemes, which seriously needed an upgrade after Pete Carroll’s post-Legion of Boom experience.
The results have been solid so far, but stopping New England, the Dolphins with Skylar Thompson under center and Denver during Bo Nix’s NFL debut isn’t anything to write home about. We’ll find out a lot when Seattle meets Detroit in this week’s Monday nighter, and controlling the Detroit run game and getting a pass rush on Jared Goff will be a serious test.
The other things that’s different this year is the rest of the division. The 49ers and Rams are both experiencing an onslaught of injuries, and no one trusts Arizona to improve that much over the long haul. So this is an ideal situation for Seattle to step up and decisively win the division.
Reality check verdict: Sorry, but we’re sticking at 50-50. A competitive performance against the Lions is essential if Seattle is going to be a true contender, and an outright win would tip things in favor of the Seahawks.
Pittsburgh Steelers
After a couple of years of showing patience with Kenny Pickett, the Steelers punted on the local guy and brought in a couple of cheap retreads. One was former Seahawk and Bronco Russell Wilson, who promptly hurt his calf pushing a blocking sled. The other was Justin Fields, who was the definition of unreliable in Chicago.
Shockingly, Fields seemed to turned the corner a little in his first two games. His completion percentage is way up at over 70 percent, and he’s doing exactly what Mike Tomlin wants him to do, which is support the defense and not throw passes to the other team. He’s run effectively when necessary, although his two fumbles in three games are definitely concerning.
Pittsburgh will travel to Indianapolis this week to play the Colts this week, and there’s a good chance the defense will dominate QB Anthony Richardson, who’s still spraying passes around. That makes a fourth straight win very viable, but no one would be surprised if Fields blows up and the Steelers drop this game.
Reality check verdict: Nope. Pittsburgh’s highest point total so far is 20, so until they decisively break that mark and win, we’re not buying. Expect them to be lurking at around .500 when playoff time rolls around, but Tomlin has a track record of getting them across the finish line and into the postseason. If they do get in, though, they’re strictly one-and-done.
The Minnesota Viking are the most stunning undefeated team in the NFL
The Vikings are the one unbeaten team no one saw coming. We knew Sam Darnold might be a good fit for Kevin O’Connell’s QB-friendly offense, but no one expected the Vikes to beat San Francisco and Houston to be where they are now.
Can it last? We say no. There’s no track record of success with Darnold to indicate that he can sustain his gaudy stats, which include a completion percentage of almost 68 percent and eight TDs to go with just a pair of picks.
Darnold may be able to outduel Malik Willis at Lambeau this week, but given Matt Lafleur’s work with Willis so far, no one would be surprised if Darnold struggled this week, then saw ghosts again at Met Life when Minnesota visits the Jets.
Reality check verdict: No takers on this one, either. We need to see at least 2-3 more games from Darnold to see if what he’s doing is anything but a remarkable hot streak in a new system with a new team.