Going into the season, the AFC East race was supposed to be a three-team affair. The Miami Dolphins started in the pole position, based largely on the assumption that Buffalo would fall off after trading star wideout Stefon Diggs to the Texans and letting Gabe Davis walk in free agency. The Jets, as always, were something of a mystery. Aaron Rodgers would be back, but would he be healthy, and would he be able to perform well for an entire season?
It's still early, but several of those questions have gotten very different answers from the ones we expected. Tua Tagovailoa’s latest horrifying concussion has put Miami’s season on the ropes, and the Bills don’t seem to be bothered all that much at the loss of most of their wide receiver corps. The Jets aren’t doing as many typical Jets things as usual, and the result is that we need to do a bit of a reset on how the AFC East race is likely to play out.
Miami’s loss is Buffalo’s gain in the AFC East
So far the Dolphins look like they’re going to roll with Skylar Thompson, although it’s hard to understand why. The Kansas State product has a completion rate of below 60 percent, and he’s thrown three picks to go with just a single touchdown pass.
Presumably he’s a placeholder until Miami gets the final report on Tua’s health going forward, although they did bring in Tyler Huntley, whose numbers are slightly better than Thompson’s, but there’s nothing to suggest he can save the Fins season.
Buffalo, meanwhile, seems to have found a new way to win. Josh Allen is spreading the ball around without the constant pressure to keep Diggs happy, and James Cook is gashing opponents in the run game while proving to be a competent receiver out of the backfield.
It’s too soon to know if this will hold up, but we’ll learn a lot Monday night when the Jaguars make the trip to Buffalo. It’s a big game for both teams, especially with the Jags and 0-2 amidst signs that things between Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson aren’t exactly warm and fuzzy these days.
Aaron Rodgers is starting to look like Aaron Rodgers
No one knew what to expect in New York when Aaron Rodgers returned to the field after a year on the shelf. He’s now 40 and coming off an Achilles tendon tear, and he looked tentative against the 49ers, then slightly more confident at Tennessee last week.
Last night against New England, though, Rodgers looked like the Rodgers of old. He lit up the New England defense for 281 yards and two TDs in the Jets 24-3 victory against the Patriots, and he even added an 11-yard scamper that almost looked like vintage Rodgers if you squinted hard enough.
The Jets defense returned to form, dominating the line of scrimmage and pounding both Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye in a game in which New England generated just 40 yards of offense in the first half.
Meanwhile, down at the bottom of the standings...
All of this should be taken with the proverbial grain of salt and then some, however. New England looked like a competent football team facing a developmental year in their first two games, but last night’s disaster on both sides of the ball offered convincing evidence that the Patriots will continue to be divisional punching bags this year.
The Pats probably aren’t quite as bad as they looked last night against the Jets, but their offensive line is a disaster. That developmental plan to play Brissett as a placeholder quarterback completely hit the skids last night, and right now it’s hard to imagine this group doing anything other than place their quarterback(s) in harm’s way.
Buffalo and New York may battle it out at the top of the division—the Jets have what amounts to a cupcake game when Denver comes to town in week four—but Miami's fate isn't quite sealed yet. They may give New England "competition" in what could be a race for the bottom, but it's too soon to get a feel for how that might play out.