While "not for long" is an ongoing fact of life in the NFL, certain things are reliable. Patrick Mahomes finds ways to win. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen continue to make electrifying plays. The reliability and range of kickers continues to increase, especially when it comes to top-tier guys like Justin Tucker.
Until now. The once-reliable Ravens kicker has become a wild card nearly every time he steps on the field, and on Sunday the inevitable happened again when Tucker’s struggles played a key role in Baltimore’s 24-19 home loss to the Eagles.
Justin Tucker’s impeccable NFL resume is suddenly at risk
It’s notoriously difficult to make the NFL Hall of Fame as a kicker, but until recently this year Justin Tucker was considered a lock. Even the best kickers occasionally gag on a big field goal, but that never seemed to happened to Tucker. His career mark of 56 for 81 from 50-59 yards is especially incredible, and he’s been virtually automatic from under 50 yards as well.
But this season has been an ongoing nightmare for the Baltimore kicker. He’s had some games where his missed kicks have been somewhat costly, but against the Eagles things went to a new level as missed three kicks in a game for the first time in his illustrious career. The misses included an extra point to go with field goal attempts from 47 and 53 yards, and those clunkers would have given the Ravens a huge edge, not to mention getting the home crowd involved in what started out as a back-and-forth game.
The kicker’s problems actually started to surface last year. Making kicks from that 50-59 yard range has been one of Tucker’s major strengths, but he struggled last year, making just one of five. Missing from that area wouldn’t be a major flaw if the problem wasn’t spreading, and that comes with broader implications.
Tucker’s struggles could change the Ravens strategy in a close playoff game
Knowing his kicker could knock one home from any distance under 60 yards gave coach John Harbaugh a distinct advantage by shortening the field, and he often used it to gauge the performance of his offense in tight games.
Without it, though, Harbaugh’s decisions became a lot tougher against Philly. The middle of the field became a zone of uncertainty for the Ravens offense, and you could almost see Harbaugh calculating the kinds of decisions he’s rarely had to make in the past.
The Ravens have won a fair number of track meet games because of Lamar Jackson’s unique playmaking ability, but those types of games typically don’t happen in the postseason.And as much as Jackson has progressed as a passer, top teams have found ways to limit Lamar’s numbers in the playoffs. Tucker’s struggles will make Jackson’s job harder in the playoffs, and his frustrations have been obvious, even though he’s still backing his kicker.
Is this a slump or an aging problem?
One of the most mystifying aspects of Justin Tucker’s struggles has been the sudden drop-off given that he’s still relatively young by kicker standards. Most great kickers go until they’re around 40 before they start to decline or hit a performance wall, but Tucker seems to have lost his big leg in his mid-thirties.
The question of whether Justin Tucker is experiencing a slump or losing his leg strength puts Harbaugh in a very delicate position. With most kickers, the solution would be to bring in competition and sign a street kicker. But this is Justin Tucker, a future Hall of Famer we’re talking about, not just any journeyman kicker.
With the playoffs just over a month away, this couldn’t be happening at a worse time. There’s no window to experiment aside from this week's de facto scrimmage with the Giants, and Tucker hasn't been able to figure out the problem on his own. That means John Harbaugh will have to get a handle figure out this situation very quickly on his own, and he’ll inevitably be gambling his team’s entire season as tries to deal with his kicker's new reality.