Last year, CJ Stroud came into the NFL as a perfectly-formed quarterback. He was constantly poised and in control, to the point where he rarely looked like a rookie. The search for the next Patrick Mahomes is relentless and ongoing in today’s QB climate, and while Stroud isn’t that, he certainly looked like the next guy who would be able to go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs superstar.
But life rarely unfolds in a straight line path, and that’s especially true for young NFL quarterbacks. Stroud has certainly had his moments of brilliance during his second season, but there are times when he doesn’t look like the same guy. He had a major meltdown in the second half of last night’s loss to Detroit, and his struggles helped allow the Lions to come back from a 23-7 deficit to post a 26-23 win, even with Detroit QB Jared Goff getting picked five times.
CJ Stroud’s stellar rookie season is starting to feel like a memory
When the Houston jumped out to a 2-0 start this year, it looked like GM Nick Caserio had pushed all the right buttons to take the Texans to the next level. Offensively, the addition of veterans Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs rounded out Houston’s arsenal, with Stroud basically playing the same way he did last year.
Then the surprises started. A 34-7 pasting at the hands of the Vikings, with Stroud getting picked twice. After that came a loss to Green Bay in which Stroud threw for just 86 yards, which was a shocking number given how consistently productive he's been.
Now those surprises have accelerated into genuine problems. Houston’s loss to New York was borderline astounding, especially given the way the Jets season is spiraling downward. Stroud was just 11 for 31 with under 200 yards in that game, and that number, too, is absolutely stunning.
The offensive line has been a problem
The kinds of failures the Texans are experiencing are rarely caused by one player, even if that player is a brilliant quarterback who’s more than willing to shoulder his share of the load. The Texans have had injury problems across the line, and they've taken some hits in their depth chart as well.
But those problems affect every NFL team at some point in the season. Injuries come calling in the NFL, especially with the 17-game schedule, and to some extent the injury problem feels more like an excuse than an explanation.
The Stefon Diggs factor
When the Texans made the move to add Diggs, he looked like the perfect veteran complement to go with emerging star Nico Collins. But Diggs who's injured and out for the season, had the performance numbers of a possession receiver, and he was such a malcontent in Buffalo that you have to wonder if his presence is behind some of these struggles.
Joe Mixon presents a different set of issues. He, too, looked like a great veteran addition, but Mixon has always been a guy who needs to be fed to be effective. Last night he averaged less than two yards a carry against Detroit, which was especially damaging in a game where Houston needed to control the clock in the second half.
It’s also important to remember that DeMeco Ryans is in just his second year as Houston’s coach. Last year it looked like he had all the answers, but now Ryans has a lot on his plate, including the weight of expectations. Most of the offensive criticism to date has been aimed at OC Bobby Slowik, but it’s fair to wonder if Ryans will be able to get the Texans back on track as they drift back toward .500.
Houston’s biggest advantage is the AFC South
The Texans clearly have some work to do get back on track, but they have two big advantages. One is the division they play in—the Titans and Jaguars have completely fallen apart, and the Colts are a mess, having benched their rookie QB for an off-the-couch veteran who’s about to turn 40.
The other advantage is Houston’s upcoming schedule. Their next four opponents are the Cowboys, Titans, Jags and Dolphins, so if they don’t emerge from that stretch at 10-4 when the Texans visit the Chiefs, it will be a strong indicator that their season has gone sideways in a big way.