When you’re a first-round draft pick in the NFL, it’s tough to disappear. That’s especially true if you're on offense and you see the ball a lot. Quarterbacks and receivers get noticed and tracked, and even running backs and tight ends who make it into round one get monitored, analyzed and rated.
But Brock Bowers has managed to do just that. Most fans are barely aware of his impressive production to date, but it’s certainly not his fault. Circumstances have conspired against the former Georgia tight end to make him the only number one draft pick who might as well be in the NFL’s version of witness protection for all the attention he’s getting.
Brock Bowers has been surprisingly successful
When the Las Vegas Raiders took Brock Bowers with the 13th pick in the draft, it was one of the more controversial selections in the first round. Conventional wisdom said he was drafted too high for a tight end, despite his success at Georgia as a pass catching machine who could more than hold his own as a blocker.
The odds against Bowers were high when it comes to having any kind of initial success. The Raiders have one of the worst quarterback situations in the NFL, with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell vying for snaps in a dreadful QB “competition.”
Neither has been very successful, which is why Las Vegas is 2-6 and going nowhere. On top of that, the Raiders have no discernible running game, and star receiver Davante Adams barely took the field for Vegas before being traded to the Jets.
Oddly enough, though, these weaknesses have conspired to work in Bowers favor to some extent. He’s basically the last man standing when Minshew or O’Connell need an open receiver, and part of the tight end’s role is to act as a last-ditch safety valve. The Raiders best pass catcher is currently possession receiver Jakobi Meyers, so Bowers is getting a lot of opportunities.
Bowers is on track to break Puka Nacua’s rookie receiving record
Given the tight end's track record at Georgia, you can make the argument that some level of success was inevitable. But not 52 catches in eight games. He’s currently on track to break the rookie receiving record set by Puka Nacua last year, when the Rams rookie finished with 105 catches.
As impressive as this is, it does come with some caveats. For starters, given the quarterbacks Bowers is working with, it’s very unlikely that he can maintain his current pace and beat Nacua. Some kind of drop off feels inevitable, especially if the Raiders tight end hits some version of the rookie wall.
Moreover, the underlying numbers aren’t all that impressive. Bowers is averaging 10.3 yards per catch, which isn’t bad for a tight end, but it’s hardly transformative. His YAC numbers are more substantial, though, as Bowers has made it clear he can break tackles and move the chains after hauling in short throws.
The upside for Brock Bowers is substantial
Watch a typical Bowers game and you’ll quickly be convinced he can do more. He’s got the speed to get open on speed routes, and it’s not impossible to imagine him hauling in a wheel route against some poor overmatched linebacker.
But those things aren’t happening with the Raiders. The reason is simple—their quarterbacks can’t execute at a high enough level to justify trying these kinds of plays. Minshew is the master of dink-and-dunk, and while he is daring enough to try downfield throws, his weak arm and off-the-cuff mechanics often betray him. O’Connell has a stronger arm, but he often throws right into tight coverage, so he’s basically no better than Minshew.
Imagine what Bowers could do in a better offense with a real quarterback. He’d be a star for a guy like Kyle Shanahan, and Bowers would have more value in just about any other offensive system. But Raider fans are left to dream about that given their limited situation right now, which is probably costing Bowers any real shot at being anything more than a dark horse candidate for NFL Rookie of the Year.